The country’s journey to net-zero emissions by 2050 is shaped by a series of legally binding milestones that limit the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) we can emit over set periods. The Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent advisory body, has just set out its recommendations for the Seventh Carbon Budget, spanning 2038–2042.
This budget will affect everyone, including the cars we drive, the way we heat up our homes, the energy we use and even what we eat.
Publication of the UK Government’s 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy gives this budget new context and momentum, promising a joined-up, long-term approach to decarbonisation and resilience. The strategy pledges at least £725 billion in infrastructure investment over the next decade, underlining the government’s commitment to stability, growth and net zero.
Why the carbon budget matters
The Climate Change Act (2008) requires the government to set regular carbon budgets. The CCC’s job is to advise on what’s achievable. The Seventh Carbon Budget recommends that the UK limits its emissions to 535 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent over the five-year period from 2038 to 2042 – this includes emissions from aviation and shipping.
The role of citizens and everyday choices
Achieving net zero is as much about our personal decisions as it is government policy or big infrastructure projects. Switching to electric vehicles, installing heat pumps, using solar panels and making small changes like how much water we use and cycling more often can all add up.
To make these changes, the Infrastructure Strategy recognises that public engagement and social value are central to success. It highlights the need for investment in public services, skills and local transport. This in turn will make it easier for us to make low-carbon choices for healthier and cleaner communities.
These actions don’t just reduce emissions; they help improve our health and save money in the long run.
Key sectors and what needs to change
Buildings
- The CCC has ruled out hydrogen for some heating. Instead, heat pumps and better insultation lead the way.
- The rate of heat pump installations needs to rise significantly from 60,000 per year today to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and 1.5 million by 2035.
- By 2035, all new and replacement heating systems should be low-carbon so that by 2050 our homes are virtually emission-free.
The Infrastructure Strategy backs this with funding for modernising homes and public buildings, ensuring that new investment supports energy efficiency and low-carbon heating at scale.
Surface transport
- All new cars and vans must be electric or capable of significant electric-only travel by 2030; hybrids will be phased out by 2035.
- Diesel trains will be phased out by 2040 and replaced by electric and battery-powered alternatives.
- More charging points are needed, especially for those without driveways.
- The share of zero-emission buses should rise from 1% today to 18% by 2030 and 60% by 2040.
- Local authorities need long-term funding and powers to boost public transport, walking and cycling.
The Infrastructure Strategy allocates billions to decarbonise transport, expand EV charging infrastructure, and modernise public transport, thus directly supporting the carbon budget’s targets for cleaner travel.
Electricity
- The electricity system must more than double in size by 2040 to accommodate more electric vehicles and electric-based heating.
- Offshore wind capacity will grow six-fold, onshore wind will double and solar will increase five-fold.
- The grid must be upgraded and expanded quickly to connect new renewables and electricity storage.
The Infrastructure Strategy priorities clean energy and grid upgrades, with a clear pipeline for renewables and a commitment to faster connections and system resilience.
Low carbon fuels
- Hydrogen is seen as key for electricity storage and as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, but not for home heating or most vehicles.
- Sustainable aviation fuels and alternative shipping fuels are in early development but will be essential by 2040.
The Infrastructure Strategy includes support for innovation in hard-to-abate sectors like maritime and aviation and funding for hydrogen and new fuels.
Nature-based solutions
- Woodland cover will increase from 13% to more than 16% of the UK by 2040.
- Restored peatlands will more than double, helping to absorb carbon naturally.
The Infrastructure Strategy supports nature-based solutions, biodiversity and environmental resilience as part of its investment priorities.
Engineered removals
- Technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air capture will help offset hard-to-abate emissions, especially from aviation.
- New infrastructure for CO2 transport and storage will be needed.
Waste and water
- Waste and wastewater are major sources of GHG emissions, in particular methane from landfill.
- Progress in recycling has stalled, and emissions from incineration are rising. This is offsetting landfill improvements.
The Infrastructure Strategy includes innovative approaches to waste and water management, which aim to drive down emissions and improve resource efficiency.
The bigger picture: costs, benefits and policy
Delivering net zero will require upfront investment, peaking at £33 billion per year in 2029. On average, the net cost is expected to be just 0.2% of UK GDP per year, with most investment coming from the private sector. The benefits are broad, including economic security, new jobs, lower bills and a cleaner environment.
The 10-year infrastructure strategy is designed to make this investment more efficient, coordinated and attractive to private capital, thereby providing the stable policy environment needed for industry and households to invest and adapt.
What happens next?
The CCC’s recommendations are advisory. The government will review them and decide how to turn them into policy. Historically, governments have accepted CCC’s advice in full, recognising that growth and net zero go hand-in-hand.
With its new Infrastructure Strategy, the UK is better placed to deliver on its carbon budgets, combining long-term planning, joined up investment and a focus on social value and resilience.
The Seventh Carbon Budget is a roadmap for a cleaner, greener and more secure UK. It’s ambitious, but with action from government, businesses and each of us, it’s possible.